Comparative Study on Mining Security Risks in Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo Threat Structures, Root Causes, and Differences in Security Strategies

RavenLong

Abstract

This paper, based on security risk management and overseas mining operation practices, conducts a systematic comparative analysis of the security situations in Pakistan (focusing on Balochistan Province) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (focusing on eastern mining areas). On the basis of existing comparative frameworks, an extended CARVER-P-R model (Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect, Recognizability, Political Motivation, Resource Dependency) is introduced to conduct a structured assessment of mining security risks.

The study finds that although both regions exhibit high-intensity violent risks targeting mining activities, there are fundamental differences in threat structures and root mechanisms: Pakistan represents a politically driven insurgency risk, while the Democratic Republic of Congo represents a resource-driven war economy system. Further analysis indicates that risks in Pakistan are evolving from traditional transportation-chain attacks toward fixed targets (mining camps), but the core driver remains political motivation rather than resource control.

Based on this, this paper constructs two types of security strategy models: “risk mitigation” and “control and containment,” providing a quantifiable and replicable security management framework for mining projects in high-risk areas.

Keywords

Mining security; CARVER model; overseas security; war economy; insurgency risk; risk assessment

Chapter 1 Introduction

With the continuous growth in global demand for critical mineral resources, highrisk regions are gradually becoming important areas for mining investment. However, these regions are often accompanied by complex security threats, posing major challenges to enterprise operations. Pakistan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as typical representatives, have long been in a state where mining development and security conflicts are intertwined.

Although both countries exhibit violent acts targeting mining projects, there are significant differences in the nature and formation mechanisms of their security risks. This paper aims to identify the root causes of risks through a systematic comparison of the security environments in the two countries and to propose targeted security strategies.

To enhance the systematic nature of the analysis, this paper introduces the CARVER model and extends it to form the CARVER-P-R model. At the same time, a semi-quantitative scoring method ( $1-5$ scale) is adopted, and operational definitions are established based on conflict data, target types, and control structures to reduce subjective bias (see appendix table).

P: Political Motivation $\mathrm{R}_{3}$ : Resource Dependency

The final model is the CARVER-P-R model.

Chapter 2 Threat Structure Analysis

2.1 Comparison of Conflict Intensity (2020-2025)

The comparison shows that the DRC is significantly higher than Pakistan in scale and intensity of violence.