Temporal Assessment of the BLF Terrorist Attack Cycle Based on

OSINT Timelines: Evidence from the 2025 Nokundi Incident

Long Bowen

Homeland Security Specialist; Air Force Security Manager; Certified Security Risk Assessor; Senior

Physical Security Systems Engineer

KMCL Mining Co., Ltd., Balochistan, Pakistan

Abstract

This study applies a terrorist attack cycle framework to assess the operational tempo and temporal characteristics of the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province. Using open-source intelligence (OSINT) collected throughout 2025, the article reconstructs the full attack cycle associated with the November 30, 2025 Nokundi assault and evaluates its implications for foreign-operated mining projects in the Chagai region,

particularly the Siah Dik copper project.

Methodology and Data

The research adopts an eight-stage terrorist attack cycle model, encompassing target selection, planning, intelligence and surveillance, financing, logistics, rehearsal, execution, and post-attack exploitation. OSINT sources include verified militant statements, regional security databases, local and national media reporting, and publicly available visual materials from social media platforms. A total of more than 150 confirmed militant incidents attributed to BLF and affiliated groups (BLA and BNA) in 2025 were chronologically reconstructed to identify temporal patterns and phase transitions.

Findings

The reconstructed timeline indicates that the Nokundi operation constituted a

complete attack cycle lasting approximately 4.5 to 5 months, beginning with target selection during Operation Baam in early July 2025 and concluding with propaganda dissemination in early December. The attack marked BLF’s first successful

employment of a female suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device

(SVBIED) in conjunction with a prolonged armed assault on a Frontier Corps headquarters.

Comparative temporal analysis reveals significant cycle compression relative to historical baselines. The intelligence and surveillance phase was reduced from an estimated twelve weeks to six weeks, while logistics preparation and rehearsal phases were compressed to approximately two weeks and four days respectively. This acceleration suggests organizational learning effects, improved coordination, and increased confidence in executing complex, high-risk operations.

Discussion

Spatial analysis demonstrates a gradual operational shift from peripheral districts toward the strategic mining core of Chagai, indicating deliberate prioritization of symbolic and economically valuable targets. The Nokundi case highlights systemic vulnerabilities arising from shared security arrangements, predictable commuting routes, and insufficiently hardened residential facilities used by foreign personnel. These conditions substantially elevate the risk of mass-casualty attacks and targeted kidnappings.

Based on observed indicators of cycle re-initiation and historical inter-attack intervals, the study assesses a heightened probability of follow-on operations targeting the Siah Dik project or associated transport routes between January and February 2026.